Figure 1

Stochastic model (left) can be used with an identified current level of S _I (t) to provide a forecast range of S _I (t) values over the next 1- to 3-hour interval. This forecast range of values can be used with a given insulin intervention and the system model of Equations (1)-(6) to yield a range of BG outcomes of differing likelihood. Note that the stochastic model shown is for a 1-hour interval, the 2- to 3-hour interval models are very similar but not shown here. More details are provided in previous studies [29, 30].