Figure 5

Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve for sensitivity and specificity of Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS 3) and the model that included SAPS 3 and ΔMPV _24h . Although area under the curve (AUC) was higher for the model (0.79; 95% CI 0.67 to 0.91 versus 0.70, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.83), it did not reach statistical significance (DeLong’s test P = 0.18). Both SAPS 3 and the model were calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow test P = 0.60 for the model and P = 0.32 for SAPS 3).