Oleic acid chlorohydrin, a new early biomarker for the prediction of acute pancreatitis severity in humans

Annals of Intensive Care

Table 4 Prognostic accuracy of OAC for severe disease (persistent organ failure) and mortality compared to other widely used predictors

Variable	Outcome to predict	Se	Sp	PPV	NPV
OAC ≥ 32.4 nM	Severe disease	100	100	100	100
OAC ≥ 32.4 nM	Mortality	100	90.2	61.5	100
SIRS at ER	Severe disease	75	56.5	31	89.7
SIRS at ER	Mortality	85.7	54.9	20.7	96.6
Persistent SIRS	Severe disease	84.6	93.3	78.6	95.5
Persistent SIRS	Mortality	75	84	42.9	95.5
HTC at ER > 44%	Severe disease	38.5	60.9	21.7	77.8
HTC at ER > 44%	Mortality	25	58.8	8.7	83.3
BISAP ≥ 3	Severe disease	38.5	89.1	50	83.7
BISAP ≥ 3	Mortality	50	88.2	40	91.8
CRP ≥ 15 mg/dL at 48 h	Severe disease	90	68.9	39.1	96.9
CRP ≥ 15 mg/dL at 48 h	Mortality	80	62	17.4	96.9

Se Sensitivity, SP specificity, PPV/NPV positive/negative predictive values, POF persistent organ failure, OAC oleic acid chlorohydrin, SIRS systemic inflammatory response syndrome, HTC hematocrit, BISAP bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis, CRP C-reactive protein