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Table 4 Patients’ observed 28 day survival according to physicians’ survival predictions

From: ICU physicians’ and internists’ survival predictions for patients evaluated for admission to the intensive care unit

Predicted survival if care in the ICU Patients admitted to intensive care (N = 140)
Intensive care physicians Internists
N (column %) Survived (row %) N (column %) Survived (row %)
<10% 6 (4.3) 2 (33.3) 2 (1.4) 0 (0)
10–40% 30 (21.4) 18 (60.0) 16 (11.4) 4 (25.0)
41–60% 27 (19.3) 18 (66.7) 28 (20.0) 17 (60.7)
61–90% 42 (30.0) 30 (71.4) 53 (37.9) 40 (75.5)
> 90% 35 (25.0) 32 (91.4) 41 (29.3) 39 (95.1)
P for linear trend P = 0.001 P < 0.001
Area under ROC curve 0.63 (0.53–0.73) 0.76 (0.67–0.84)
Predicted survival if care on the ward Patients NOT admitted to intensive care (N = 61)
Intensive care physicians Internists
N (column %) Survived (row %) N (column %) Survived (row %)
<10% 10 (16.4) 4 (40.0) 12 (19.7) 3 (25.0)
10–40% 11 (18.0) 7 (63.6) 14 (23.0) 11 (78.6)
41–60% 9 (14.8) 7 (77.8) 19 (31.1) 15 (78.9)
61–90% 11 (18.0) 8 (72.7) 13 (21.3) 11 (84.4)
> 90% 20 (32.8) 17 (85.0) 3 (4.9) 3 (100)
P for linear trend P = 0.016 P = 0.001
Area under ROC curve 0.69 (0.54–0.84) 0.74 (0.61–0.89)