Table 4 Patients’ observed 28 day survival according to physicians’ survival predictions
Predicted survival if care in the ICU | Patients admitted to intensive care (N = 140) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Intensive care physicians | Internists | |||
N (column %) | Survived (row %) | N (column %) | Survived (row %) | |
<10% | 6 (4.3) | 2 (33.3) | 2 (1.4) | 0 (0) |
10–40% | 30 (21.4) | 18 (60.0) | 16 (11.4) | 4 (25.0) |
41–60% | 27 (19.3) | 18 (66.7) | 28 (20.0) | 17 (60.7) |
61–90% | 42 (30.0) | 30 (71.4) | 53 (37.9) | 40 (75.5) |
> 90% | 35 (25.0) | 32 (91.4) | 41 (29.3) | 39 (95.1) |
P for linear trend | P = 0.001 | P < 0.001 | ||
Area under ROC curve | 0.63 (0.53–0.73) | 0.76 (0.67–0.84) | ||
Predicted survival if care on the ward | Patients NOT admitted to intensive care (N = 61) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Intensive care physicians | Internists | |||
N (column %) | Survived (row %) | N (column %) | Survived (row %) | |
<10% | 10 (16.4) | 4 (40.0) | 12 (19.7) | 3 (25.0) |
10–40% | 11 (18.0) | 7 (63.6) | 14 (23.0) | 11 (78.6) |
41–60% | 9 (14.8) | 7 (77.8) | 19 (31.1) | 15 (78.9) |
61–90% | 11 (18.0) | 8 (72.7) | 13 (21.3) | 11 (84.4) |
> 90% | 20 (32.8) | 17 (85.0) | 3 (4.9) | 3 (100) |
P for linear trend | P = 0.016 | P = 0.001 | ||
Area under ROC curve | 0.69 (0.54–0.84) | 0.74 (0.61–0.89) | ||