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Fig. 4 | Annals of Intensive Care

Fig. 4

From: The prognostic accuracy evaluation of SAPS 3, SOFA and APACHE II scores for mortality prediction in the surgical ICU: an external validation study and decision-making analysis

Fig. 4

Prediction models decision curves. a, b The net benefits of using each prediction model (on the y-axis) plotted for different thresholds of the probability of intra-ICU (a) or in-hospital (b) deaths (on the x-axis). The net benefit was calculated according to the following formula: net benefit = [(true-positive count)/n] − [(false-positive count)/n] × [pt/(1 − pt)] where n is the total number of patients and pt the threshold probability. Two lines representing the net benefit associated with the strategy of assuming all patients survived (no false positives) (black line) and that all patients died (yellow line) was drawn for comparison. Orange line—APACHE II; blue line—SOFA; gray line—SAPS 3

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