Annals of Intensive Care

Table 2 Bayesian estimation of treatment effects of DXM20 vs DXMSoc across baseline subsets, looking for treatment-by-subset interactions

From: Which severe COVID-19 patients could benefit from high dose dexamethasone? A Bayesian post-hoc reanalysis of the COVIDICUS randomized clinical trial

Subsets	Posterior quantities
	HR death, 95% credible interval	Pr benefit (HR < 0.95)	Pr harm (HR > 1.05)	HR ratio (95% credible int)	Pr interaction (HR ratio > 1.2)
All	0.95 (0.66–1.37)	0.511	0.290
Age, years
< 70	0.68 (0.37–1.23)	0.865	0.077	1.00	0.84
\(\ge \) 70	1.15 (0.72–1.83)	0.22	0.64	1.69 (0.79–3.66)
Days since symptoms
< 7	0.59 (0.46–0.75)	0.999	< 0.0001	1.00	0.99
\(\ge \) 7	1.16 (1.06–1.28)	< 0.0001	0.981	1.99 (1.52–2.56)
Body temperature, °C					0.58
< 38	0.96 (0.63–1.45)	0.487	0.335	1.00
\(\ge \) 38	0.93 (0.47–1.71)	0.526	0.357	0.97 (0.49–1.79)
Inflammation^a
No	0.94 (0.30–2.79)	0.507	0.422	1.00	0.68
Yes	0.91 (0.44–2.16)	0.541	0.366	0.97 (0.44–2.59)
CRP, mg/L
< 135	0.93 (0.51–1.67)	0.533	0.340	1.00	0.76
\(\ge \) 135	1.33 (0.74–2.38)	0.129	0.789	1.43 (0.79–2.59)
Ferritin, μg/L
< 1120	1.87 (0.96–3.57)	0.023	0.957	1.00	0.99
\(\ge \) 1120	0.42 (0.21–0.84)	0.99	< 0.001	0.22 (0.09–0.58)
Ddimers, ng/mL
< 940	0.63 (0.34–1.17)	0.906	0.051	1.00	0.99
\(\ge \) 940	1.52 (0.87–2.72)	0.050	0.904	2.41 (1.38–4.29)
IMV
No	0.90 (0.53–1.43)	0.600	0.254	1.00	0.65
Yes	1.02 (0.57–1.84)	0.401	0.463	1.14 (0.54–2.44)
SAPS II
< 33	0.91 (0.43–1.88)	0.55	0.35	1.00	0.67
\(\ge \) 33	0.97 (0.63–1.51)	0.46	0.36	1.07 (0.46–2.57)
Remdesivir use
No	1.15 (0.75–1.75)	0.191	0.660	1.00	0.91
Yes	0.61 (0.29–1.18)	0.901	0.056	0.54 (0.25–1.03)

In each subset, hazard ratio (HR) of death within the first 60 days (with 95% credibility intervals, CrI) were computed, with posterior probability of benefit or harm; then potential heterogeneity in effect across subsets was measured on the ratio of both HR
CRP C reactive protein, O2 oxygen, HFNO High-Flow Nasal Oxygen, CPAP Continuous Positive Airway Pressure, IMV invasive mechanical ventilation, IL6 interleukin 6, SAPS Simplified Acute Physiology Score, HR hazard ratio, Pr probability
^aDefined as either ferritin level > 1000 μg/L or CRP > 100 mg/L

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